Each year is different. Bracket matrix (which puts together all the major bracket outlets into one number) still has us as the 2nd 4 seed right now despite the loss to Purdue (some may not have updated since Monday, so maybe we fall to the last 4 or first 5). Check the resumes of some of the teams in that range and you will see why. Their resumes are just as holey as ours. If we go 14-6 and lose in the first round to a mediocre team, we might be as low as a 6-7, but that is a pretty poor finish (it would involve either losing another home game or losing on the road to a non tourney team, AND losing to a lower seed in the BT at a neutral court, without any nice road wins to counteract those poor results). 15-5 and don't lose to anyone until it is a Q1 loss in the tourney and we are likely a 4 seed. And regardless, it doesn't matter all that much, its all about getting a draw that avoids playing teams that can exploit our weaknesses.